Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 110.918015 126.855030 144.775936 166.516742 192.305946 222.077463 259.273617
2026-01-18 90.169738 110.475139 135.305870 168.250979 211.335411 266.495643 343.656212
2026-01-25 76.429851 98.503722 127.237798 168.066095 225.720325 305.996247 429.468327
2026-02-01 65.656440 87.990386 118.514842 164.319120 233.170015 335.986472 507.557803
2026-02-08 57.515174 79.590941 111.004080 160.356522 238.621366 362.877934 585.966915
2026-02-15 51.241084 72.876815 104.750402 156.873020 243.549058 388.983905 668.360533
2026-02-22 49.044800 71.786863 106.541487 165.868631 269.756382 455.091221 839.510828
2026-03-01 45.603659 68.336570 104.141231 167.487769 283.370311 501.312532 985.014082
2026-03-08 42.760576 65.480748 102.281839 169.616806 298.028058 552.187210 1155.293728
2026-03-15 39.896509 62.274025 99.431244 169.495633 308.248940 596.099872 1323.499829
2026-03-22 38.859081 61.973582 101.447915 178.488277 337.869034 687.320001 1639.802130
2026-03-29 37.651357 61.241714 102.584090 185.896968 365.502666 780.754038 1999.935268
2026-04-05 36.161823 59.955316 102.720507 191.669501 391.487939 879.068757 2425.856679
2026-04-12 34.320261 57.869938 101.154791 193.767792 409.722105 963.481046 2853.200070
2026-04-19 32.387661 55.439829 98.669196 193.561254 422.508205 1037.257925 3285.656616
2026-04-26 30.182360 52.311235 94.505261 189.125796 424.080965 1080.292070 3629.919998
2026-05-03 28.167483 49.382390 90.461599 184.436096 424.185285 1119.337810 3983.338677
2026-05-10 26.402009 46.795463 86.869224 180.316100 425.050733 1161.189768 4376.890134
2026-05-17 26.167471 47.176872 89.423536 190.962464 468.251010 1353.405415 5614.712159
2026-05-24 25.158721 45.931761 88.422282 192.880897 487.302681 1471.051141 6584.559795
2026-05-31 24.273141 44.865762 87.702690 195.404443 508.750983 1605.538093 7781.646402
2026-06-07 23.242166 43.423064 86.023711 195.260789 522.120374 1714.899112 8944.032756
2026-06-14 23.072707 43.761679 88.349290 205.931585 572.262267 1993.064205 11611.587509